Chatham HouseSentinel
critical85/100

Luke Walsh

Erbil, Iraq(2026-09-17 → 2026-09-20)
Erbil Hotel, Gulan Street, Erbil
Baghdad, Iraq(2026-09-20 → 2026-09-27)
Babylon Hotel, Baghdad, Jadriya Area - Karada Street, Baghdad, Baghdad Governorate, Iraq
2026-09-17 → 2026-09-27
Traveller Profile
Public Profile: high
FCDO Travel Advisory

Baghdad and all other areas of Iraq: "ADVISE AGAINST ALL TRAVEL." Kurdistan Region of Iraq (including Erbil): "ADVISE AGAINST ALL BUT ESSENTIAL TRAVEL." The security situation in Iraq remains volatile. There is a high threat of terrorism, kidnapping, and violent unrest. Protests can occur with little notice and frequently turn violent. Regional tensions are high; international events can trigger rapid escalations in local security. British nationals are at high risk of being targeted for kidnapping. The British Embassy’s ability to provide assistance is extremely limited in areas where we advise against all travel. FCDO advises against travel, which is a critical factor that may void insurance cover.

Country Risk Profile

WTW Insurer Risk Score (Q1 2026): 57/100 — Extreme Security Risks. Terrorism (82/100) is the primary threat with Daesh sleeper cells active in rural and disputed territories. Internal Conflict (67/100) involves high militia activity, especially in Baghdad where Shia militias operate with hostility toward Western interests. Erbil (Kurdistan) is more stable but faces risks from regional missile strikes by Iran and Turkey. Baghdad is volatile, with the Babylon Hotel area being a frequent target for indirect fire from militias.

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Known Events During Travel Dates
POINT Conference
2026-09-18

High-profile gathering of activists and researchers in Erbil; likely to attract attention.

Risk implication: Potential for surveillance or targeted disruption by regional intelligence actors.

Mawlid al-Nabi
2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16

Religious celebrations just prior to arrival; increased security presence and large crowds.

Risk implication: Potential for traffic disruption and mass gathering risks in both cities.

Research and Working Group Meetings
2026-09-21 and 2026-09-26

Meetings at non-fortified venues in Baghdad.

Risk implication: Highest static risk for the traveller during the trip.

Health & Medical
Disease Risks: Risk of Cholera and MERS-CoV.
Vaccinations: Hepatitis A, B, Typhoid, and Tetanus must be up to date.
Medical Facilities: Erbil has adequate private clinics (Zheen Hospital); Baghdad facilities are poor. Medical evacuation is the only viable option for serious illness.
Food & Water: Avoid all tap water; ensure meat is thoroughly cooked.
Traveller-Specific Risks

High Public Profile: As a researcher on accountability in Iraq and Syria, Luke Walsh is a high-value target for surveillance, arbitrary detention, or kidnapping. Gender (Male): Faces lower risk of street-level harassment but higher risk of being perceived as a security or intelligence operative by local militias. Nationality: British passport holders face a high risk of "hostage diplomacy" by Iranian-backed groups during periods of UK-Iran tension.

Risk Factors
critical

Terrorism

IEDs and suicide attacks in Baghdad; drone strikes in Erbil.

critical

Kidnapping

High risk for high-profile Western researchers in Baghdad.

critical

Insurance Compliance

No cover for the Baghdad portion of the trip under the standard AIG policy; travel currently constitutes an uninsured corporate liability.

high

Regional Conflict

Risk of Erbil being targeted by Iranian or Turkish missiles.

Security Recommendations
  • 1.Obtain a High Risk insurance extension for Baghdad; without this, the trip cannot proceed.
  • 2.Mandatory use of Armoured Vehicles (B6/B7 level) and Professional Protection Officers (PPO) for all movements in Baghdad.
  • 3.In Erbil, use pre-vetted secure drivers and avoid street taxis.
  • 4.Request hotel rooms on mid-level floors (3-5) to avoid ground-level blasts and roof-level rocket impacts.
  • 5.Use burner phones and laptops due to high risk of spyware or physical device seizure.
  • 6.Save AIG MyLifeline (+44 1273 065 120) and UK Consular (+44 20 7008 5000) emergency numbers.
UK Return Requirements — Isolation/Quarantine
No Quarantine Required
Duration: not required
Type: self-monitoring only
Health Screening: Self-monitor for respiratory symptoms (MERS-CoV) for 14 days post-return.
Reporting Requirements: None
Reporting Requirements: None

Based on current 2026 projections.

Security Plan (Annex A)

High-profile research must be conducted with low-profile movements. Avoid routine and vary routes between the Babylon Hotel and meeting venues. Avoid public cafes in Jadriya; conduct all meetings in secured hotel environments where possible.

Evacuation triggered by a spike in Green Zone rocket attacks, FCDO "Ordered Departure" of embassy staff, or civil unrest blocking the road to Baghdad International Airport (BIAP). Decision made by Chatham House ELT in consultation with AIG Crisis Room.

If BIAP is closed, relocation to the British Embassy (Baghdad) or hibernation in the Babylon Hotel is required. Overland travel to Jordan or Kuwait is extremely high risk and not recommended without a private security detail.

Babylon Hotel has reinforced safe zones. Ensure a Go-Bag with 72 hours of water and a satellite phone is kept in the room.

Communications Plan (Annex B)

Text "SAFE ARRIVAL [Location]" to the Chatham House Duty Officer upon landing and arriving at hotels. Daily check-ins via Signal/WhatsApp at 08:00 UK and 18:00 UK.

If check-in is missed by 30 minutes, Duty Officer attempts contact. After 60 minutes, Duty Officer contacts the hotel and PPO. After 2 hours, AIG Crisis Management, CH Director, and FCDO are alerted. In medical/security emergencies, traveller must press the SOS button on the MyLifeline App or call +44 1273 065 120.

AIG MyLifeline Assistance: +44 1273 065 120; FCDO Consular Emergency: +44 20 7008 5000; Chatham House Duty Officer: [Placeholder]; PPO/Driver: [Placeholder]

AIG Security Questionnaire

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Training Compliance 4 missing

Required training for critical risk destinations: 5 course(s)

Basic Online Training

Required for all travel

Risk Awareness Training

Required for all travel

First Aid Training

Required for all travel

Enhanced Online Training

Required for amber/red destinations

HEAT Training

Required for red destinations

Trip Approval Workflow

Risk Assessment

Pending

Insurance Approval

Pending

Trip Approval

Pending

Documents

Personal Travel Safety Brief

PDF document with traveller safety guidance

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Report

Full security analysis and risk assessment

Security Plan (Annex A)

Security approach, evacuation & hibernation protocols

Communications Plan (Annex B)

Check-in protocol, escalation & contact numbers