Chatham HouseSentinel

Travel Risk Dashboard

Overseas travel security intelligence overview

Total Assessments

29

Completed

27

High Risk Travel

6

Critical Risk

5

Emerging Risk Alerts20 new
Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

As of September 2, 2026, Somalia faces an acute political crisis due to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's mandate extension, leading to federal fractures and clashes in Baidoa. Al-Shabaab remains a significant threat, controlling 30% of the territory with ongoing high-intensity combat. A major resurgence in piracy has seen sophisticated hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Additionally, the African Union mission faces a funding collapse, while over 6 million people suffer from food insecurity and impending El Niño-related flood risks.

Recommended: Defer all travel to Somalia, including Somaliland and Puntland, due to kidnapping, terrorism, and armed conflict risks. Maritime vessels must exercise extreme vigilance against piracy. Humanitarian personnel should prepare for civil unrest and supply chain disruptions. Foreign nationals must maintain updated medical evacuation insurance and clear extraction plans given limited consular services.

Luke Walsh Aden, Yemen
criticalcriticalNEW

Security in Aden has deteriorated as Yemen 'quickly slides back into war' [Yemen's War is Returning](https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-east-north-africa/yemen-saudi-arabia/yemens-war-returning). Recent weeks have seen renewed fighting between Houthi rebels and government forces, alongside a resurgence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden [Yemen Conflict Monitor | ACLED](https://production.acleddata.com/monitor/yemen-conflict-monitor). The city faces extreme threats from terrorism (AQAP/Daesh), kidnapping, and regional military escalation [Yemen Travel Advisory | Travel.State.gov](https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/yemen.html) [Yemen Travel Advice & Safety](https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/middle-east/yemen).

Recommended: Do not travel to Yemen [Yemen travel advice](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/yemen/safety-and-security). If present, depart immediately if safe [Yemen Travel Advice & Safety](https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/middle-east/yemen). Avoid all demonstrations and military/energy infrastructure [Yemen Travel Advisory | Travel.State.gov](https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/yemen.html).

Luke Walsh Mumbai, India
moderatemoderateNEW

As of September 2, 2026, Mumbai remains at a moderate risk level, but the trend has increased due to heightened security alerts. Intelligence agencies have warned of potential terrorist threats, leading to increased security measures across the city and at airports. Additionally, there have been recent reports of violent incidents on the suburban railway network and ongoing concerns regarding environmental quality and seasonal monsoon impacts.

Recommended: Maintain a high level of situational awareness, especially in crowded public spaces and transit hubs. Monitor local media and official government travel advisories for updates. Follow all instructions from local law enforcement and security personnel. Ensure travel insurance is comprehensive and covers potential disruptions. Exercise caution when using public transportation and avoid areas where large protests or gatherings may occur.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

As of September 1, 2026, the security situation in Somalia has reached a 'structural impasse' characterized by an 'unprecedented security vacuum' [Somalia Security at Breaking Point: Critical UN Support Deadline Looms | 2026](https://www.somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/somalia-security-crisis-un-support-deadline-2026/) [Somalia's 2026 security impasse: The geography of an ...](https://www.somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/somalia-security-impasse-2026). This deterioration is driven by the looming December 2026 deadline for the cessation of U.S. and UN logistical support for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) [Conflict With Al-Shabaab in Somalia | Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/al-shabab-somalia). Al-Shabaab remains a resilient threat, exploiting gaps in state authority and humanitarian crises [Conflict With Al-Shabaab in Somalia | Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/al-shabab-somalia). Furthermore, a constitutional crisis and federalism fractures that peaked in early 2026 have exacerbated political instability [1. General description of the security situation in Somalia | European Union Agency for Asylum](https://www.euaa.europa.eu/somalia-security-situation/1-general-description-security-situation-somalia).

Recommended: Maintain a strict 'Do Not Travel' policy for all regions of Somalia due to the extreme risk of terrorism, kidnapping, and violent crime [Somalia Travel Advisory | Travel.State.gov](https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/somalia.html) [Somalia Travel Advice & Safety | Smartraveller](https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/africa/somalia). Individuals currently in the country should seek professional security advice, obtain comprehensive medical evacuation insurance, and finalize departure plans before the anticipated security vacuum widens further in late 2026 [Somalia Country Security Report - OSAC](https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/75c31ca2-4fc4-45c6-bffb-1c780203ac4b).

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

As of August 31, 2026, the security situation in Somalia remains critical with an increased risk trend observed over the last 30 days [Is Somalia Safe in 2026? Safety Index 34.3/100](https://safemap.ai/country/somalia). The country is facing a severe political crisis following President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's decision to extend his term, which triggered violent clashes between rival factions in Mogadishu [Political Crisis and Violent Protests in Somalia — Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute (BISI)](https://bisi.org.uk/reports/political-crisis-and-violent-protests-in-somalia) [Safety and security - Somalia travel advice - GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/somalia/safety-and-security). The conflict with Al-Shabaab persists in a structural impasse [Somalia’s 2026 security impasse: The geography of an unwinnable war | Somali Guardian](https://www.somaliguardian.com/news/somalia-news/somalia-security-impasse-2026), and maritime security has deteriorated with the recent hijacking of a Turkish arms ship by pirates off the Puntland coast [Somalia Security: News & Analysis | Somalia Today](https://somaliatoday.com/category/security/).

Recommended: Adhere to 'Do Not Travel' advisories from all major international authorities due to the extreme risk of terrorism, kidnapping, and civil unrest [Somalia Travel Advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/somalia-travel-advisory.html) [Somalia Travel Advice & Safety | Smartraveller](https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/africa/somalia). Foreign nationals should avoid all travel to the country, and those currently present should consider immediate departure via commercial means if safe to do so [Somalia travel advice](https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/somalia). Maintain extreme vigilance in public spaces, avoid all demonstrations or political gatherings, and ensure professional armed security is utilized for any essential movement [Safety and security - Somalia travel advice - GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/somalia/safety-and-security).

Luke Walsh Aden, Yemen
criticalcriticalNEW

The security situation in Aden has deteriorated over the last 30 days due to intensifying friction between Saudi-backed forces and the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) [7]. Recent escalations include the forced closure of the STC-affiliated Trade Union Federation headquarters on August 25 and the announcement of 'unprecedented' public demonstrations scheduled for September 1 [7]. The UN has warned that Yemen is at risk of being drawn into a wider Middle East conflict following Houthi strikes on ports and refineries in early August [2][17]. A persistent domestic gas crisis, tribal mobilizations, and escalating assassinations of political figures further contribute to the city's instability [7][8][20].

Recommended: Adhere to 'Do Not Travel' advisories issued by international authorities due to the extreme threat of terrorism, kidnapping, and armed conflict [6][11][15]. Individuals currently in Aden should consider departing immediately if safe to do so [6]. Avoid all demonstrations and public gatherings, particularly the planned protests on September 1, as these are likely to trigger violent clashes [7][20]. Limit movement near 'Prison Street' and government facilities, and maintain a high level of security awareness at all times [20]. Ensure any presence is supported by professional security advice and specialized high-risk insurance [6][11].

Luke Walsh Mumbai, India
moderatemoderateNEW

As of August 31, 2026, the security risk in Mumbai has increased relative to the baseline due to specific terrorist threats and heightened security measures implemented throughout the month. In early August, Mumbai Police investigated viral social media warnings of potential attacks scheduled between August 9 and 18, 2026, leading to a city-wide high alert and intensified patrolling at airports, railway stations, and religious sites [Mumbai Police probe social media post warning of ...](https://telanganatoday.com/mumbai-police-probe-social-media-post-warning-of-possible-terror-attack-in-august) [Mumbai on High Alert After Bomb Threat Message Claims ...](https://www.facebook.com/firstpostin/videos/fpreels-mumbai-on-high-alert-after-bomb-threat-message-claims-14-terrorists-ente/780994664306558/). While no major incident occurred during the predicted window, the security environment remains tense, further complicated by the ongoing monsoon season which brought heavy rainfall and localized travel disruptions throughout August [Weather for Mumbai, Maharashtra, India](https://weather.com/weather/monthly/l/19.07283,72.88261). International advisories from the U.S. and Canada maintain a Level 2 ('Exercise a high degree of caution') status due to the persistent threat of terrorism and crime [India Travel Advisory | Travel.State.gov](https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/india.html) [Travel advice and advisories for India](https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/india).

Recommended: Travelers should exercise a high degree of caution and avoid large public gatherings, religious sites, and iconic landmarks during periods of high alert [Mumbai on high alert: ‘Terrorist threat’, security increased at temples and crowded places | Today News](https://www.livemint.com/news/india/mumbai-on-high-alert-terrorist-threat-security-increased-at-temples-and-crowded-places/amp-11727509731926/). Monitor local news and the Mumbai Police's official social media channels for real-time security updates and threat assessments [Mumbai Police probe social media post warning of ...](https://telanganatoday.com/mumbai-police-probe-social-media-post-warning-of-possible-terror-attack-in-august). Due to the monsoon season, verify flight and train statuses before departure as heavy rains frequently disrupt transportation [IndiGo issues travel advisory as heavy rains disrupt Mumbai, Pune flights](https://www.cnbctv18.com/india/mumbai-rains-continue-to-disrupt-flights-airlines-issue-fresh-advisories-19939076.htm). Always maintain a low profile and register with your home country's embassy for emergency notifications [India | Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mfa.gov.sg/travelling-overseas/travel-advisories-notices-and-visa-information/india/).

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The security situation in Somalia has deteriorated further as of August 30, 2026. Key risks include heavy fighting in Baidoa between government forces and regional militias, a constitutional crisis involving Jubaland and Puntland, and persistent Al-Shabaab terrorist activity. Additionally, there is a significant resurgence in maritime piracy, impending severe El Niño flooding, and health concerns regarding malnutrition and Marburg virus monitoring.

Recommended: Adhere to Level 4 'Do Not Travel' advisories and depart the country immediately via commercial means if possible. If travel is essential, utilize 24/7 armored transport and professional security, avoiding public areas and government buildings. Maritime vessels must maintain high vigilance in the Gulf of Aden and Somali basin.

Luke Walsh Aden, Yemen
criticalcriticalNEW

As of August 30, 2026, the security situation in Aden has deteriorated, with the UN warning that Yemen is at risk of being drawn into a wider Middle East conflict [Yemen at Risk of Entering Wider Middle East Conflict, UN ...](https://press.un.org/en/2026/sc16431.doc.htm). The Aden-based government has recently strengthened defensive measures in response to escalating Houthi threats targeting ports, economic infrastructure, and maritime routes [Yemen Strengthens Defensive Measures Against Houthi Threat](https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5312090-yemen-strengthens-defensive-measures-against-houthi-threat). The political process remains deadlocked, and the risk of a return to large-scale hostilities is high [Yemen: Briefing and Consultations* : What's In Blue](https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2026/08/yemen-briefing-and-consultations-46.php). Additionally, Aden continues to face internal instability from STC infighting and a persistent threat of assassinations and terrorism [Aden Security | ACLED](https://acleddata.com/report/aden-security).

Recommended: Do not travel to Aden or any other part of Yemen due to the extreme risk of armed conflict, kidnapping, and terrorism [Yemen Travel Advice & Safety](https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/middle-east/yemen). Foreign nationals currently in Aden should depart immediately while commercial options remain available. If remaining in the city, maintain a high level of security awareness, avoid all government and military sites, and strictly follow the guidance of local authorities and professional security experts [Safety and security - Yemen travel advice - GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/yemen/safety-and-security).

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The security situation in Somalia has worsened as of August 27, 2026, due to an acute institutional crisis, a significant resurgence in maritime piracy, and intensified militant activity. Key risks include a looming security vacuum caused by UN funding shortfalls and potential troop withdrawals, alongside frequent Al-Shabaab attacks in Mogadishu and Baidoa. Additionally, severe drought and humanitarian funding gaps are exacerbating inter-clan competition for resources.

Recommended: Avoid all travel to Somalia and consider leaving via commercial means while available. Vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden should employ maximum security measures and maintain a wide berth from the coast. Essential personnel must use armored vehicles and professional security details, avoiding all public places including hotels and beaches. Ensure an independent evacuation plan is in place, as consular support is extremely limited.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

Note: São Paulo is located in Brazil; this analysis pertains to Somalia. The risk level remains critical with a significant upward trend in instability. Recent events include major armed conflict in Baidoa, multi-pronged Al-Shabaab attacks, and clashes with ISIS. Maritime insecurity has escalated with a resurgence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Politically, a constitutional crisis and federal-regional tensions are fragmenting the security architecture, while the African Union mission (AUSSOM) faces a funding and transition crisis. A severe humanitarian situation is worsened by aid cuts and projected El Niño flooding.

Recommended: Avoid all travel to Somalia due to extreme risks of kidnapping, terrorism, and armed conflict. Individuals already in the country should remain within fortified 'Green Zone' compounds and monitor Aden Adde International Airport for indirect fire. Maritime personnel must maintain maximum security protocols in the Gulf of Aden. All parties should ensure multiple evacuation routes and verified communications plans are in place due to potential airport closures or telecommunications blackouts.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

As of August 25, 2026, the security situation in Somalia is critical and increasing due to a burgeoning political crisis regarding the 2026 election cycle and the scaling back of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission (AUSSOM). Key factors include the annulment of Galmudug election results, Al-Shabaab's control of 30% of the territory, and the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Burhakaba. Environmental risks include a persistent drought affecting 1.9 million people and emerging flood risks for the Deyr rainy season.

Recommended: Avoid all travel to Somalia. Individuals currently in the country should maintain evacuation plans independent of international mission support and limit movement to armored transport within secured compounds. Avoid Aden Adde International Airport during political announcements due to mortar fire risks. Monitor the Ankara Declaration for regional security shifts.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The risk level in Somalia has effectively increased due to violent political instability in Baidoa, where federal troops clashed with regional militias on August 17, 2026. Additionally, maritime piracy has reached a 10-year high with recent hijackings in August. Al-Shabaab remains a persistent threat, and a humanitarian crisis is worsening following the closure of over 205 health facilities and forecasted El Niño flooding.

Recommended: Maintain 'Do Not Travel' status. Avoid Baidoa and South West State due to ongoing military standoffs. Vessels in the Indian Ocean or Gulf of Aden should implement BMP5 and consider armed security. Travelers currently in-country should have professional security details, evacuation plans, and monitor STEP alerts.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The security situation in Somalia has intensified, marked by a resurgence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden, including recent hijackings of the Sibu 1 and Lutuf. Internal conflict has escalated with heavy fighting in Baidoa between federal and regional forces. Al-Shabaab remains a significant threat despite government counter-insurgency efforts. Additionally, the country faces a severe humanitarian crisis with acute hunger, imminent flooding risks, and increased suppression of journalists.

Recommended: Avoid all travel to Somalia due to extreme threats of kidnapping, terrorism, and armed conflict. Maritime vessels should exercise extreme caution and re-evaluate routing in the Gulf of Aden. Personnel in-country should limit movements in Baidoa and Mogadishu, review evacuation plans, and ensure vaccinations and essential supplies are maintained in anticipation of flood-related disruptions.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The risk in Somalia has increased due to a deepening constitutional crisis following President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term extension, leading to political deadlock and armed standoffs. Al-Shabaab remains highly active, recently attempting a major IED attack in Baidoa and maintaining control over significant territory. Additionally, a security transition crisis has emerged following the withdrawal of U.S. support for UNSOS, causing operational paralysis for AUSSOM.

Recommended: Do not travel to Somalia. Non-essential travelers should evacuate immediately via secure means. If remaining, limit movement to the Mogadishu International Airport fortified complex, use armored vehicles with professional security for all ground movement, and maintain active satellite communication.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

As of August 19, 2026, the risk level in Somalia has increased to an active emergency status. While no city named São Paulo exists in Somalia, the country faces significant escalation in armed conflict, particularly in Baidoa, alongside a deteriorating humanitarian crisis. Key risks include urban warfare between federal forces and regional militias, Al-Shabaab insurgent activity, a resurgence of maritime piracy off the Puntland coast, and a severe malnutrition crisis. Additionally, a "Super El Niño" warning predicts catastrophic flooding for the upcoming rainy season.

Recommended: Avoid all travel to Somalia due to the volatile security environment and high threat of terrorism and kidnapping. Individuals in Baidoa should shelter in place and coordinate immediate evacuation. Maritime vessels must maintain a wide berth of the coast and follow BMP5 protocols. Maintain at least 14 days of essential supplies as conflict and anticipated flooding are likely to disrupt supply chains.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The risk level in Somalia has increased due to a constitutional crisis following presidential term extensions, leading to armed clashes in Baidoa. Al-Shabaab has launched a broad offensive, seizing strategic towns like Teedaan, while the impending withdrawal of international military support (AUSSOM) threatens operational paralysis. Additionally, the country faces a 'Super El Niño' flood risk, severe malnutrition, and outbreaks of cholera and measles. Piracy and kidnapping risks remain extreme.

Recommended: Maintain a 'Do Not Travel' status and coordinate immediate evacuation if currently in-country. For mission-essential travel, utilize armored transport and professional armed security at all times. Ensure all vaccinations are current and maintain emergency food and water supplies due to the humanitarian crisis.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The security environment in Somalia has worsened due to an acute institutional crisis following a presidential term extension, leading to clashes between federal forces and regional militias. Al-Shabaab remains highly active, recapturing towns in central Somalia, while the international security mission (ATMIS/AUSSOM) faces severe funding cuts. Additionally, a severe malnutrition crisis is unfolding, and the country faces a significant threat from an upcoming El Niño event.

Recommended: Maintain a 'Do Not Travel' status for all regions. Individuals currently in Somalia should establish independent evacuation plans and monitor UNDSS intelligence. Essential personnel must stay within the Mogadishu International Airport Green Zone and use armored vehicles with professional armed security for any external movement.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

As of August 2026, the security situation in Somalia remains critical and has further deteriorated due to deepening political divisions, persistent armed conflict with Al-Shabaab, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. Recent reports indicate a structural impasse in the conflict, with increased political instability and violent clashes in Mogadishu as recently as mid-2026. The threat of terrorism, kidnapping, and violent crime remains extreme, and the country continues to face significant challenges regarding limited medical services and humanitarian access.

Recommended: Do not travel to Somalia under any circumstances. If you are currently in the country, you should consider leaving immediately if it is safe to do so. If you must remain, seek professional security advice, maintain a low profile, limit all movements, monitor local media for emerging threats, and ensure you have a robust, pre-planned exit strategy.

Aweis Ahmed Mohamed São Paulo, Somalia
criticalcriticalNEW

The security situation in Somalia has deteriorated as of August 15, 2026, due to a constitutional crisis following President Mohamud's term extension, leading to violent clashes in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab has escalated attacks on military bases and strategic towns, while the defunding of the African Union mission (AUSSOM) threatens a security collapse. Additionally, a Grade-3 humanitarian emergency persists with widespread famine and expected riverine flooding.

Recommended: Avoid all travel to Somalia due to extreme risks of kidnapping and terror attacks. Non-essential personnel should depart immediately via commercial flights while available. Essential personnel must utilize armored transport with armed escorts and remain within fortified compounds. Monitor for potential closures of Aden Adde International Airport and other logistics hubs.

Active Traveller Locations
2 travellers currently abroad
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